Rate Hike Unlikely on Slowing US Economy | Trading Forex
According to the Commerce Department, retail sales barely rose in September, edging up only 0.1 percent last month largely due to cheaper gasoline which pushed gas station receipts down 3.2 percent. Producer prices reported their biggest decline in eight months.
The Commerce Department report showed that retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services slipped 0.1 percent last month after a downwardly revised 0.2 percent gain in August.
Reports show that the economy has been losing momentum as a result of a dollar that has strengthened against other major currencies, sluggish global growth and lower oil prices that are impeding capital spending in the energy sector. All these factors have contributed to a halt in job growth in the past two months.
No Rate Hike Foreseen
According to Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto, "The softness of September's figures supports our view that the Fed probably isn't going to hike interest rates until early next year."The Commerce Department report also showed that business inventories remained unchanged again in August, triggering JPMorgan to cut its third-quarter GDP estimate by half a percentage point to an annual rate of 1 percent.
The economy grew only 3.9 percent in the second quarter while discretionary spending, which could provide some cushioning against weakening global growth, remained somewhat healthy as consumers bought automobiles and furniture and spent more on hobbies, clothing and dining out.
The Winning Trading Strategies of 2017 | Trading Forex
Now that we are only a few weeks away from the end of the calendar year and the start of 2018, the time has come to look back over the year. Which trading strategies have performed best in the Forex market so far?All trading strategies can be broken down into two types: trend trading strategies, and mean reverting strategies. With trend trading strategies, traders define the direction of the longer-term trend and enter trades only in the same direction. Mean reverting strategies define an average price, and traders seek to enter trades back towards the average when the price has become over-extended away from it. As over 80% of the volume of the Forex market is traded in just EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, I’m going to apply a rough strategy of each type to these three major Forex currency pairs and see which came out ahead. I’ll then dissect the results and see if it tells us anything useful about the way the Forex market is evolving.
Trend Following Strategies
My favorite basis for a trend following strategy, because it is so elegantly simple, is just to check the opening price of each week to see whether the price has been going up or down over both the past three months and six months. If yes, then that’s the trend direction, and each week is just measured as a trade from open to close without any stop loss. If these results are good, then any trend following strategy should also have produced positive results. So, here are the results for 2017 to the end of October:| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 2.01% | 45.45% |
| GBP/USD | 3.27% | 52.42% |
| USD/JPY | -3.65% | 42.31% |
| TOTAL | 1.63% | <50.00% |
This is a poor result – it would be negative if the costs of all the trades were factored in. In my blog I wrote recently about using linear regression analysis, and I found that using the slope of the line of best fit over the past 20 weeks can work better. What if we try this trend-following method?
| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 4.90% | 50.00% |
| GBP/USD | -3.45% | 53.84% |
| USD/JPY | -6.58% | 46.51% |
| TOTAL | -5.13% | ~50.00% |
Using linear regression, we got an even worse result. So overall, we must conclude that trend following strategies have not worked well this year. This isn’t surprising: trend following strategies tend to go through lengthy periods of losses, before profiting excessively during big winning streaks.
So, what about mean-reverting trading strategies?
Mean Reverting Strategies
Mean reverting strategies, as I explained earlier, are the exact opposite of trend following strategies. This suggests that 2017 should have been a good year for this type of trading strategy, so let’s test a couple of good mean-reverting strategies on the same three Forex pairs.The first strategy is to wait for a weekly candle to make a new high or low – we will try the same period as the last test, 20 weeks. If the candle makes a new high and then closes down, or makes a new low and then closes up, enter at the open of the next week and close at the end of that week. Here are the results:
| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | -0.40% | 50.00% |
| GBP/USD | 1.12% | 50.00% |
| USD/JPY | -1.15% | 0.00% |
| TOTAL | -0.43% | ~50.00% |
There were less than 10 trades in total using this strategy, but the overall result was slightly negative. This strategy did not work well this year. Let’s look at another typical mean reversion strategy, which uses the Bollinger Bands indicator, set to its standard 20-day, 2 standard deviations bands, on the daily chart. This strategy waits until a daily candle touches one of the outer bands, and then enters once the price breaks past the other end of the candle (i.e. the candle is reversed). The trade is then held until the opposite extreme band of the Bollinger Bands is reached. Unfortunately, this strategy also produced a negative result. There is one final pure mean reverting strategy which has worked well in the past that is worth back testing: whenever a weekly candlestick moves from open to close by more than 2% in value, enter a trade in the opposite direction at the start of the next week, then close it at the end of the week. This strategy only gave a few trades all year, and the result was, again, a small loss.
A ”Time of Day” Trading Strategy
There is no doubt this has been a hard year for Forex traders. It seems that all types of mechanical strategies, whether trend following or mean reverting, would, at best, have failed to make any profit this year. Trying to find a mechanical trading strategy which did perform well, I looked at a “time of day” strategy based upon the position at 9am London time compared to the previous midnight, on just EUR/USD and GBP/USD. This strategy exploits the statistical tendency of the London and New York sessions to follow any clear lead given by the Asian session, which begins at roughly midnight London time. The rule is simple: if the price is at least 25 pips higher at 9am London time than it was at Midnight, go long, or short if at least 25 pips less. The trade is closed at 5pm New York time, and no stop loss is used. There results for 2017 until the end of October were as follows:| Currency Pair | Total Pips | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 533 | 66.03% |
| GBP/USD | 367 | 53.26% |
| ALL | 1,000 | 58.33% |
These are impressive results: not only is there a high winning percentage of trades, but the average result per trade was very good (about 10 pips for EUR/USD, 3.5 pips for GBP/USD). Even when you factor in the spread / commission, it was a nicely profitable strategy. Yet this is the only “brainless” trading strategy I know of which was a winner in 2017. Unfortunately, it was a tough year in the Forex market.
I’ve only looked at the Forex market, even though many Forex brokers also offer trading in major stock indices and commodities. Major stock indices, especially U.S. indices such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30, have been in strongly bullish trends the entire year. If you buy stocks directly, the highest leverage you can get is perhaps 3 to 1, but many brokers offer 20 to 1 on major indices. The S&P 500 Index is up almost 16% year to date, and at leverage of 20 to 1 you could be up 320%, although there is a risk of being wiped out at such leverage in the event of a major market crash slipping a stop loss by more then 5%. Many brokers also charge expensive overnight fees making it costly to hold these positions for many weeks or months.
If you do use trend following strategies based upon price alone, don’t panic. A bad year is not unusual. Some of the best years for trend followers come just after very bad ones. It could be that the Forex market is getting more chaotic and harder to trade, yet there is no rule that you must stick to Forex alone. Stock indices and commodities often provide opportunities when the Forex market is flat.
Source
The Winning Trading Strategies of 2017 | Trading Forex
Now that we are only a few weeks away from the end of the calendar year and the start of 2018, the time has come to look back over the year. Which trading strategies have performed best in the Forex market so far?All trading strategies can be broken down into two types: trend trading strategies, and mean reverting strategies. With trend trading strategies, traders define the direction of the longer-term trend and enter trades only in the same direction. Mean reverting strategies define an average price, and traders seek to enter trades back towards the average when the price has become over-extended away from it. As over 80% of the volume of the Forex market is traded in just EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, I’m going to apply a rough strategy of each type to these three major Forex currency pairs and see which came out ahead. I’ll then dissect the results and see if it tells us anything useful about the way the Forex market is evolving.
Trend Following Strategies
My favorite basis for a trend following strategy, because it is so elegantly simple, is just to check the opening price of each week to see whether the price has been going up or down over both the past three months and six months. If yes, then that’s the trend direction, and each week is just measured as a trade from open to close without any stop loss. If these results are good, then any trend following strategy should also have produced positive results. So, here are the results for 2017 to the end of October:| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 2.01% | 45.45% |
| GBP/USD | 3.27% | 52.42% |
| USD/JPY | -3.65% | 42.31% |
| TOTAL | 1.63% | <50.00% |
This is a poor result – it would be negative if the costs of all the trades were factored in. In my blog I wrote recently about using linear regression analysis, and I found that using the slope of the line of best fit over the past 20 weeks can work better. What if we try this trend-following method?
| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 4.90% | 50.00% |
| GBP/USD | -3.45% | 53.84% |
| USD/JPY | -6.58% | 46.51% |
| TOTAL | -5.13% | ~50.00% |
Using linear regression, we got an even worse result. So overall, we must conclude that trend following strategies have not worked well this year. This isn’t surprising: trend following strategies tend to go through lengthy periods of losses, before profiting excessively during big winning streaks.
So, what about mean-reverting trading strategies?
Mean Reverting Strategies
Mean reverting strategies, as I explained earlier, are the exact opposite of trend following strategies. This suggests that 2017 should have been a good year for this type of trading strategy, so let’s test a couple of good mean-reverting strategies on the same three Forex pairs.The first strategy is to wait for a weekly candle to make a new high or low – we will try the same period as the last test, 20 weeks. If the candle makes a new high and then closes down, or makes a new low and then closes up, enter at the open of the next week and close at the end of that week. Here are the results:
| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | -0.40% | 50.00% |
| GBP/USD | 1.12% | 50.00% |
| USD/JPY | -1.15% | 0.00% |
| TOTAL | -0.43% | ~50.00% |
There were less than 10 trades in total using this strategy, but the overall result was slightly negative. This strategy did not work well this year. Let’s look at another typical mean reversion strategy, which uses the Bollinger Bands indicator, set to its standard 20-day, 2 standard deviations bands, on the daily chart. This strategy waits until a daily candle touches one of the outer bands, and then enters once the price breaks past the other end of the candle (i.e. the candle is reversed). The trade is then held until the opposite extreme band of the Bollinger Bands is reached. Unfortunately, this strategy also produced a negative result. There is one final pure mean reverting strategy which has worked well in the past that is worth back testing: whenever a weekly candlestick moves from open to close by more than 2% in value, enter a trade in the opposite direction at the start of the next week, then close it at the end of the week. This strategy only gave a few trades all year, and the result was, again, a small loss.
A ”Time of Day” Trading Strategy
There is no doubt this has been a hard year for Forex traders. It seems that all types of mechanical strategies, whether trend following or mean reverting, would, at best, have failed to make any profit this year. Trying to find a mechanical trading strategy which did perform well, I looked at a “time of day” strategy based upon the position at 9am London time compared to the previous midnight, on just EUR/USD and GBP/USD. This strategy exploits the statistical tendency of the London and New York sessions to follow any clear lead given by the Asian session, which begins at roughly midnight London time. The rule is simple: if the price is at least 25 pips higher at 9am London time than it was at Midnight, go long, or short if at least 25 pips less. The trade is closed at 5pm New York time, and no stop loss is used. There results for 2017 until the end of October were as follows:| Currency Pair | Total Pips | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 533 | 66.03% |
| GBP/USD | 367 | 53.26% |
| ALL | 1,000 | 58.33% |
These are impressive results: not only is there a high winning percentage of trades, but the average result per trade was very good (about 10 pips for EUR/USD, 3.5 pips for GBP/USD). Even when you factor in the spread / commission, it was a nicely profitable strategy. Yet this is the only “brainless” trading strategy I know of which was a winner in 2017. Unfortunately, it was a tough year in the Forex market.
I’ve only looked at the Forex market, even though many Forex brokers also offer trading in major stock indices and commodities. Major stock indices, especially U.S. indices such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30, have been in strongly bullish trends the entire year. If you buy stocks directly, the highest leverage you can get is perhaps 3 to 1, but many brokers offer 20 to 1 on major indices. The S&P 500 Index is up almost 16% year to date, and at leverage of 20 to 1 you could be up 320%, although there is a risk of being wiped out at such leverage in the event of a major market crash slipping a stop loss by more then 5%. Many brokers also charge expensive overnight fees making it costly to hold these positions for many weeks or months.
If you do use trend following strategies based upon price alone, don’t panic. A bad year is not unusual. Some of the best years for trend followers come just after very bad ones. It could be that the Forex market is getting more chaotic and harder to trade, yet there is no rule that you must stick to Forex alone. Stock indices and commodities often provide opportunities when the Forex market is flat.
Source
The Winning Trading Strategies of 2017 | Trading Forex
Now that we are only a few weeks away from the end of the calendar year and the start of 2018, the time has come to look back over the year. Which trading strategies have performed best in the Forex market so far?All trading strategies can be broken down into two types: trend trading strategies, and mean reverting strategies. With trend trading strategies, traders define the direction of the longer-term trend and enter trades only in the same direction. Mean reverting strategies define an average price, and traders seek to enter trades back towards the average when the price has become over-extended away from it. As over 80% of the volume of the Forex market is traded in just EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, I’m going to apply a rough strategy of each type to these three major Forex currency pairs and see which came out ahead. I’ll then dissect the results and see if it tells us anything useful about the way the Forex market is evolving.
Trend Following Strategies
My favorite basis for a trend following strategy, because it is so elegantly simple, is just to check the opening price of each week to see whether the price has been going up or down over both the past three months and six months. If yes, then that’s the trend direction, and each week is just measured as a trade from open to close without any stop loss. If these results are good, then any trend following strategy should also have produced positive results. So, here are the results for 2017 to the end of October:| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 2.01% | 45.45% |
| GBP/USD | 3.27% | 52.42% |
| USD/JPY | -3.65% | 42.31% |
| TOTAL | 1.63% | <50.00% |
This is a poor result – it would be negative if the costs of all the trades were factored in. In my blog I wrote recently about using linear regression analysis, and I found that using the slope of the line of best fit over the past 20 weeks can work better. What if we try this trend-following method?
| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 4.90% | 50.00% |
| GBP/USD | -3.45% | 53.84% |
| USD/JPY | -6.58% | 46.51% |
| TOTAL | -5.13% | ~50.00% |
Using linear regression, we got an even worse result. So overall, we must conclude that trend following strategies have not worked well this year. This isn’t surprising: trend following strategies tend to go through lengthy periods of losses, before profiting excessively during big winning streaks.
So, what about mean-reverting trading strategies?
Mean Reverting Strategies
Mean reverting strategies, as I explained earlier, are the exact opposite of trend following strategies. This suggests that 2017 should have been a good year for this type of trading strategy, so let’s test a couple of good mean-reverting strategies on the same three Forex pairs.The first strategy is to wait for a weekly candle to make a new high or low – we will try the same period as the last test, 20 weeks. If the candle makes a new high and then closes down, or makes a new low and then closes up, enter at the open of the next week and close at the end of that week. Here are the results:
| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | -0.40% | 50.00% |
| GBP/USD | 1.12% | 50.00% |
| USD/JPY | -1.15% | 0.00% |
| TOTAL | -0.43% | ~50.00% |
There were less than 10 trades in total using this strategy, but the overall result was slightly negative. This strategy did not work well this year. Let’s look at another typical mean reversion strategy, which uses the Bollinger Bands indicator, set to its standard 20-day, 2 standard deviations bands, on the daily chart. This strategy waits until a daily candle touches one of the outer bands, and then enters once the price breaks past the other end of the candle (i.e. the candle is reversed). The trade is then held until the opposite extreme band of the Bollinger Bands is reached. Unfortunately, this strategy also produced a negative result. There is one final pure mean reverting strategy which has worked well in the past that is worth back testing: whenever a weekly candlestick moves from open to close by more than 2% in value, enter a trade in the opposite direction at the start of the next week, then close it at the end of the week. This strategy only gave a few trades all year, and the result was, again, a small loss.
A ”Time of Day” Trading Strategy
There is no doubt this has been a hard year for Forex traders. It seems that all types of mechanical strategies, whether trend following or mean reverting, would, at best, have failed to make any profit this year. Trying to find a mechanical trading strategy which did perform well, I looked at a “time of day” strategy based upon the position at 9am London time compared to the previous midnight, on just EUR/USD and GBP/USD. This strategy exploits the statistical tendency of the London and New York sessions to follow any clear lead given by the Asian session, which begins at roughly midnight London time. The rule is simple: if the price is at least 25 pips higher at 9am London time than it was at Midnight, go long, or short if at least 25 pips less. The trade is closed at 5pm New York time, and no stop loss is used. There results for 2017 until the end of October were as follows:| Currency Pair | Total Pips | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 533 | 66.03% |
| GBP/USD | 367 | 53.26% |
| ALL | 1,000 | 58.33% |
These are impressive results: not only is there a high winning percentage of trades, but the average result per trade was very good (about 10 pips for EUR/USD, 3.5 pips for GBP/USD). Even when you factor in the spread / commission, it was a nicely profitable strategy. Yet this is the only “brainless” trading strategy I know of which was a winner in 2017. Unfortunately, it was a tough year in the Forex market.
I’ve only looked at the Forex market, even though many Forex brokers also offer trading in major stock indices and commodities. Major stock indices, especially U.S. indices such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30, have been in strongly bullish trends the entire year. If you buy stocks directly, the highest leverage you can get is perhaps 3 to 1, but many brokers offer 20 to 1 on major indices. The S&P 500 Index is up almost 16% year to date, and at leverage of 20 to 1 you could be up 320%, although there is a risk of being wiped out at such leverage in the event of a major market crash slipping a stop loss by more then 5%. Many brokers also charge expensive overnight fees making it costly to hold these positions for many weeks or months.
If you do use trend following strategies based upon price alone, don’t panic. A bad year is not unusual. Some of the best years for trend followers come just after very bad ones. It could be that the Forex market is getting more chaotic and harder to trade, yet there is no rule that you must stick to Forex alone. Stock indices and commodities often provide opportunities when the Forex market is flat.
Source
The Winning Trading Strategies of 2017 | Trading Forex
Now that we are only a few weeks away from the end of the calendar year and the start of 2018, the time has come to look back over the year. Which trading strategies have performed best in the Forex market so far?All trading strategies can be broken down into two types: trend trading strategies, and mean reverting strategies. With trend trading strategies, traders define the direction of the longer-term trend and enter trades only in the same direction. Mean reverting strategies define an average price, and traders seek to enter trades back towards the average when the price has become over-extended away from it. As over 80% of the volume of the Forex market is traded in just EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, I’m going to apply a rough strategy of each type to these three major Forex currency pairs and see which came out ahead. I’ll then dissect the results and see if it tells us anything useful about the way the Forex market is evolving.
Trend Following Strategies
My favorite basis for a trend following strategy, because it is so elegantly simple, is just to check the opening price of each week to see whether the price has been going up or down over both the past three months and six months. If yes, then that’s the trend direction, and each week is just measured as a trade from open to close without any stop loss. If these results are good, then any trend following strategy should also have produced positive results. So, here are the results for 2017 to the end of October:| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 2.01% | 45.45% |
| GBP/USD | 3.27% | 52.42% |
| USD/JPY | -3.65% | 42.31% |
| TOTAL | 1.63% | <50.00% |
This is a poor result – it would be negative if the costs of all the trades were factored in. In my blog I wrote recently about using linear regression analysis, and I found that using the slope of the line of best fit over the past 20 weeks can work better. What if we try this trend-following method?
| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 4.90% | 50.00% |
| GBP/USD | -3.45% | 53.84% |
| USD/JPY | -6.58% | 46.51% |
| TOTAL | -5.13% | ~50.00% |
Using linear regression, we got an even worse result. So overall, we must conclude that trend following strategies have not worked well this year. This isn’t surprising: trend following strategies tend to go through lengthy periods of losses, before profiting excessively during big winning streaks.
So, what about mean-reverting trading strategies?
Mean Reverting Strategies
Mean reverting strategies, as I explained earlier, are the exact opposite of trend following strategies. This suggests that 2017 should have been a good year for this type of trading strategy, so let’s test a couple of good mean-reverting strategies on the same three Forex pairs.The first strategy is to wait for a weekly candle to make a new high or low – we will try the same period as the last test, 20 weeks. If the candle makes a new high and then closes down, or makes a new low and then closes up, enter at the open of the next week and close at the end of that week. Here are the results:
| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | -0.40% | 50.00% |
| GBP/USD | 1.12% | 50.00% |
| USD/JPY | -1.15% | 0.00% |
| TOTAL | -0.43% | ~50.00% |
There were less than 10 trades in total using this strategy, but the overall result was slightly negative. This strategy did not work well this year. Let’s look at another typical mean reversion strategy, which uses the Bollinger Bands indicator, set to its standard 20-day, 2 standard deviations bands, on the daily chart. This strategy waits until a daily candle touches one of the outer bands, and then enters once the price breaks past the other end of the candle (i.e. the candle is reversed). The trade is then held until the opposite extreme band of the Bollinger Bands is reached. Unfortunately, this strategy also produced a negative result. There is one final pure mean reverting strategy which has worked well in the past that is worth back testing: whenever a weekly candlestick moves from open to close by more than 2% in value, enter a trade in the opposite direction at the start of the next week, then close it at the end of the week. This strategy only gave a few trades all year, and the result was, again, a small loss.
A ”Time of Day” Trading Strategy
There is no doubt this has been a hard year for Forex traders. It seems that all types of mechanical strategies, whether trend following or mean reverting, would, at best, have failed to make any profit this year. Trying to find a mechanical trading strategy which did perform well, I looked at a “time of day” strategy based upon the position at 9am London time compared to the previous midnight, on just EUR/USD and GBP/USD. This strategy exploits the statistical tendency of the London and New York sessions to follow any clear lead given by the Asian session, which begins at roughly midnight London time. The rule is simple: if the price is at least 25 pips higher at 9am London time than it was at Midnight, go long, or short if at least 25 pips less. The trade is closed at 5pm New York time, and no stop loss is used. There results for 2017 until the end of October were as follows:| Currency Pair | Total Pips | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 533 | 66.03% |
| GBP/USD | 367 | 53.26% |
| ALL | 1,000 | 58.33% |
These are impressive results: not only is there a high winning percentage of trades, but the average result per trade was very good (about 10 pips for EUR/USD, 3.5 pips for GBP/USD). Even when you factor in the spread / commission, it was a nicely profitable strategy. Yet this is the only “brainless” trading strategy I know of which was a winner in 2017. Unfortunately, it was a tough year in the Forex market.
I’ve only looked at the Forex market, even though many Forex brokers also offer trading in major stock indices and commodities. Major stock indices, especially U.S. indices such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30, have been in strongly bullish trends the entire year. If you buy stocks directly, the highest leverage you can get is perhaps 3 to 1, but many brokers offer 20 to 1 on major indices. The S&P 500 Index is up almost 16% year to date, and at leverage of 20 to 1 you could be up 320%, although there is a risk of being wiped out at such leverage in the event of a major market crash slipping a stop loss by more then 5%. Many brokers also charge expensive overnight fees making it costly to hold these positions for many weeks or months.
If you do use trend following strategies based upon price alone, don’t panic. A bad year is not unusual. Some of the best years for trend followers come just after very bad ones. It could be that the Forex market is getting more chaotic and harder to trade, yet there is no rule that you must stick to Forex alone. Stock indices and commodities often provide opportunities when the Forex market is flat.
Source
The Winning Trading Strategies of 2017 | Trading Forex
Now that we are only a few weeks away from the end of the calendar year and the start of 2018, the time has come to look back over the year. Which trading strategies have performed best in the Forex market so far?All trading strategies can be broken down into two types: trend trading strategies, and mean reverting strategies. With trend trading strategies, traders define the direction of the longer-term trend and enter trades only in the same direction. Mean reverting strategies define an average price, and traders seek to enter trades back towards the average when the price has become over-extended away from it. As over 80% of the volume of the Forex market is traded in just EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, I’m going to apply a rough strategy of each type to these three major Forex currency pairs and see which came out ahead. I’ll then dissect the results and see if it tells us anything useful about the way the Forex market is evolving.
Trend Following Strategies
My favorite basis for a trend following strategy, because it is so elegantly simple, is just to check the opening price of each week to see whether the price has been going up or down over both the past three months and six months. If yes, then that’s the trend direction, and each week is just measured as a trade from open to close without any stop loss. If these results are good, then any trend following strategy should also have produced positive results. So, here are the results for 2017 to the end of October:| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 2.01% | 45.45% |
| GBP/USD | 3.27% | 52.42% |
| USD/JPY | -3.65% | 42.31% |
| TOTAL | 1.63% | <50.00% |
This is a poor result – it would be negative if the costs of all the trades were factored in. In my blog I wrote recently about using linear regression analysis, and I found that using the slope of the line of best fit over the past 20 weeks can work better. What if we try this trend-following method?
| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 4.90% | 50.00% |
| GBP/USD | -3.45% | 53.84% |
| USD/JPY | -6.58% | 46.51% |
| TOTAL | -5.13% | ~50.00% |
Using linear regression, we got an even worse result. So overall, we must conclude that trend following strategies have not worked well this year. This isn’t surprising: trend following strategies tend to go through lengthy periods of losses, before profiting excessively during big winning streaks.
So, what about mean-reverting trading strategies?
Mean Reverting Strategies
Mean reverting strategies, as I explained earlier, are the exact opposite of trend following strategies. This suggests that 2017 should have been a good year for this type of trading strategy, so let’s test a couple of good mean-reverting strategies on the same three Forex pairs.The first strategy is to wait for a weekly candle to make a new high or low – we will try the same period as the last test, 20 weeks. If the candle makes a new high and then closes down, or makes a new low and then closes up, enter at the open of the next week and close at the end of that week. Here are the results:
| Currency Pair | Trade Results | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | -0.40% | 50.00% |
| GBP/USD | 1.12% | 50.00% |
| USD/JPY | -1.15% | 0.00% |
| TOTAL | -0.43% | ~50.00% |
There were less than 10 trades in total using this strategy, but the overall result was slightly negative. This strategy did not work well this year. Let’s look at another typical mean reversion strategy, which uses the Bollinger Bands indicator, set to its standard 20-day, 2 standard deviations bands, on the daily chart. This strategy waits until a daily candle touches one of the outer bands, and then enters once the price breaks past the other end of the candle (i.e. the candle is reversed). The trade is then held until the opposite extreme band of the Bollinger Bands is reached. Unfortunately, this strategy also produced a negative result. There is one final pure mean reverting strategy which has worked well in the past that is worth back testing: whenever a weekly candlestick moves from open to close by more than 2% in value, enter a trade in the opposite direction at the start of the next week, then close it at the end of the week. This strategy only gave a few trades all year, and the result was, again, a small loss.
A ”Time of Day” Trading Strategy
There is no doubt this has been a hard year for Forex traders. It seems that all types of mechanical strategies, whether trend following or mean reverting, would, at best, have failed to make any profit this year. Trying to find a mechanical trading strategy which did perform well, I looked at a “time of day” strategy based upon the position at 9am London time compared to the previous midnight, on just EUR/USD and GBP/USD. This strategy exploits the statistical tendency of the London and New York sessions to follow any clear lead given by the Asian session, which begins at roughly midnight London time. The rule is simple: if the price is at least 25 pips higher at 9am London time than it was at Midnight, go long, or short if at least 25 pips less. The trade is closed at 5pm New York time, and no stop loss is used. There results for 2017 until the end of October were as follows:| Currency Pair | Total Pips | Winning Trade % |
| EUR/USD | 533 | 66.03% |
| GBP/USD | 367 | 53.26% |
| ALL | 1,000 | 58.33% |
These are impressive results: not only is there a high winning percentage of trades, but the average result per trade was very good (about 10 pips for EUR/USD, 3.5 pips for GBP/USD). Even when you factor in the spread / commission, it was a nicely profitable strategy. Yet this is the only “brainless” trading strategy I know of which was a winner in 2017. Unfortunately, it was a tough year in the Forex market.
I’ve only looked at the Forex market, even though many Forex brokers also offer trading in major stock indices and commodities. Major stock indices, especially U.S. indices such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30, have been in strongly bullish trends the entire year. If you buy stocks directly, the highest leverage you can get is perhaps 3 to 1, but many brokers offer 20 to 1 on major indices. The S&P 500 Index is up almost 16% year to date, and at leverage of 20 to 1 you could be up 320%, although there is a risk of being wiped out at such leverage in the event of a major market crash slipping a stop loss by more then 5%. Many brokers also charge expensive overnight fees making it costly to hold these positions for many weeks or months.
If you do use trend following strategies based upon price alone, don’t panic. A bad year is not unusual. Some of the best years for trend followers come just after very bad ones. It could be that the Forex market is getting more chaotic and harder to trade, yet there is no rule that you must stick to Forex alone. Stock indices and commodities often provide opportunities when the Forex market is flat.
Source
What Is The Difference Between A Demat Account And Buying and selling Account? | Insurance | Mesothelioma | Forex
This is the place you purchase and promote stocks, choices, ETFs and extra. I acknowledge that securities held in my Margin account could also be pledged, re-pledged, hypothecated, or re-hypothecated for any quantity due Stadium Online in my account(s) or for a larger amount. All the information on this website is for academic functions only and is not to be construed as investment or buying and selling advice. For a few of these brokerages, in case you lose money and your account stability drops under this amount, you’ll still be charged further fees for having too low a stability.
Any Commonwealth Bank or CommSec account details supplied by you on the One Off Trade Kind are for identification purposes only, and proceeds will likely be credited in the type of cheque only. Your selections right here will inform your selection of brokerage. Share trading through this web site is a service offered by means of Westpac Securities Restricted ABN 39 087 924 221 AFSL 233723 by Australian Funding Alternate Ltd ABN seventy one 076 515 930 AFSL 241400 (“the Participant”), a participant of the ASX Group and Chi-X Australia.
In relation to investments, a buying and selling account is used as a way for an investor to purchase stocks. Before you acquire any services or products from Westpac Securities Restricted and the Participant, it’s essential to view the most recent Financial Providers Guides (FSG’s) issued by them. Margin buying and selling is extended by Nationwide Financial Companies, Member NYSE, SIPC, a Constancy Investments firm. As well as, I felt the brokerage structure and price of account opening and fees might be increased aspect when compared to different brokers who offer only Trading and Demat Account.
Additional, homeowners, employees, agents or representatives of the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management aren’t appearing as investment advisors and may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Alternate Fee or the Financial Trade Regulatory. XTB Restricted is authorised and controlled by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 522157) with its registered and buying and selling workplace at Level 34, One Canada Sq., Canary Wharf, E14 5AA, London, United Kingdom (company quantity 07227848).
Switching your banking and investment accounts to CIBC is easy and convenient, and comes with plenty of advantages. Improve your buying and selling efficiency or be taught to trade with City Index’s videos and tutorials. Demat account is sort of a bank account by which instead of money, the shares and securities you purchase are saved in dematerialized form. Use a CommSec Share Buying and selling Account to put money into a variety of ASX-listed securities, including Australian shares, using our award-successful trading platform.
Resulting from numerous factors (akin to danger tolerance, margin requirements, trading goals, brief time period vs. long term strategies, technical vs. basic market analysis, and other elements) such buying and selling could end result within the initiation or liquidation of positions which can be different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein. The brokerage wants all this information to allow them to contact you to debate changes in your accounts to confirm gross sales or purchases and to let you recognize about a margin name.
This can be achieved by playing with totally different forex demo accounts by varied brokers. Motilal Oswal’s on-line platforms offer the best online trading and tracking experience across all gadgets, which is cellular app, net portal, EXE, smart watch and so forth. Buying and selling accounts are often associated with day trading. This rule requires a $25,000 minimal amount within the account to commerce more than three spherical journeys during a rolling five-day interval. FxPro Group Limited is the holding company of FxPro Financial Providers Ltd, FxPro UK Restricted, FxPro Global Markets MENA Restricted and FxPro Global Markets Ltd.
ActivTrades PLC is regulated by the Dubai Monetary Companies Authority below Agency’s reference No. F003511. Trade Traded Funds are funds that trade on a inventory exchange like bizarre shares. The supplier of the share trading service (weâ€, usâ€, ourâ€) reserves the correct to finish the Introductory Interval early on one business day’s discover within the event that a customer’s buying and selling activities exceed affordable limits as decided by us in our discretion. Consider it as a bank account for your shares as a substitute of money.
For those who hold shares in certificate type, you can simply add these in to your Trading Account so that you can manage all your holdings electronically in one place. Individual brokerages could apply margin restrictions on particular stocks as a result of volatility and brief curiosity. Where you want to promote shares that are held within the name of a belief or company you should have an existing Commonwealth Checking account or bank card in the identical name as the registered title on the shares.
You may access our on-line trading platform on the internet, cellular, desktop or use our call and trade facility, in order that you don’t miss out on any market opportunities. To view the bank account you nominated on your software type, select Portfolio > Profile after you might have logged into your CommSec account. Whole up your risk capital and examine this to the required minimal stability at each brokerage. Until otherwise specified here, the traditional phrases and situations, credit criteria, fees and charges apply to the share trading service provided by Westpac Securities Limited (ABN 39 087 924 221, AFSL 233723) by Australian Investment Trade Ltd (ABN 71 076 515 930, AFSL 241400).
HALAMAN SELANJUTNYA:
Commerce On Your Phrases | Insurance | Mesothelioma | Forex
This is where you buy and sell stocks, options, ETFs and extra. In relation to investments, a buying and selling account is used as a manner for an investor to purchase shares. Earlier than you acquire any services or products from Westpac Securities Limited and the Participant, you have to view the newest Financial Companies Guides (FSG’s) issued by them. Margin buying and selling is prolonged by Nationwide Financial Services, Member NYSE, SIPC, a Fidelity Investments firm. As well as, I felt the brokerage structure and cost of account opening and costs can be increased facet when compared to different brokers who provide only Buying and selling and Demat Account.
Any Commonwealth Bank or CommSec account details supplied by you on the One Off Commerce Form are for identification functions only, and proceeds can be credited in the type of cheque only. Your decisions here will inform your choice of brokerage. Share buying and selling via this website is a service supplied by way of Westpac Securities Limited ABN 39 087 924 221 AFSL 233723 by Australian Investment Trade Ltd ABN 71 076 515 930 AFSL 241400 (“the Participant”), a participant of the ASX Group and Chi-X Australia.
Your online banking and funding accounts are protected by the CIBC Digital Banking Security Assure. Share Investing Restricted is a subsidiary of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Restricted ABN eleven 005 357 522 (ANZ) however will not be an authorised deposit-taking institution below the Banking Act. In a single day means you hold the position past 4:00p.m. EST and you’ll be liable for a regulation T margin name and your brokerage would ask you to point out them an additional $25,000 which would be 50% of the $100,000.
Apart from any deposits within the Money Account, the obligations of Share Investing Limited don’t characterize deposits or different liabilities of ANZ. Let’s take another have a look at Intraday Margin which is often referred to as Pattern Day Trader Margin or PDT. Convenience, flexibility and great value aren’t all a CommSec Share Buying and selling Account offers. Now you’ll be able to fix your brokerage with our Flexi margin plan and luxuriate in lower brokerage rates on your investments. When you work for a registered broker supplier they’ll ask whether or not you were a director, a 10% shareholder or policymaking officer of a publicly owned company in addition to which company that might be. If you are a registered consultant of a brokerage agency or a ten% or extra shareholder in a company, then you could have particular disclosure obligations along with the data already provided.
A demo account can’t always reasonably mirror the entire market circumstances that will have an effect on pricing, execution and margin requirements in a reside trading setting. Whatever stocks you buy will probably be held in Demat Account. Read this Article , which may help you perceive more about how the Buying and selling & Demat account works. Account the place you hold your shares in dematerialize kind or in digital type. Day Trading Account is an account for intraday merchants, the place a trader purchase and sell their stocks throughout the similar day.
With a margin account you’re basically borrowing money from someone, like getting buyers into your trades. The SEBI passed a mandate in 1996 that every one your shares needs to be transformed to an digital format. As you undergo the account opening course of, your brokerage agency must know a good deal of personal details about you. When you use all of the horsepower of the $100,000 shopping for power you would have to close at the least a portion of that trade by the top of the day or must provide you with a regulation T margin call.
Notice that every online brokerage account signal-up course of is slightly different. A demat account gives you information about the shares you own together with the amount. Investors who trade by OTA nonetheless need to settle by their very own accounts. On T+1 day, the securities firm ought to complete the transaction allocation operations and can’t preserve the data not yet allocated. Trading international change, spot valuable metals and every other product on the Forex platform involves significant danger of loss and may not be appropriate for all investors.
Up to now, the buyers were given the bodily possession of shares, but now the shares are just credited in the Demat account of the investor. Your shares will probably be bought inside approximately two (2) business days after receipt of your request at the prevailing market price on the time the order is positioned. If client sends buying and selling order after the market closed, the order will show PO (Pending Order) Status because the dealer system has to verify the order details earlier than sending to SET System.
Day trading margin for non-IRA accounts is normally leveraged at four-to-one during market hours. One of the best ways to fund your account is via a bank wire instantly out of your checking or financial savings account into your new brokerage account. I ACKNOWLEDGE THAT MY BROKERAGE DOES NOT PRESENT INVESTMENT, TAX, OR LEGAL RECOMMENDATION OR SUGGESTIONS. The information contained on this web site doesn’t represent the supply of advice or constitute or type a part of any provide, solicitation or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities or other financial product nor shall it type a part of it or type the premise of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or dedication in any way.
You ought to be aware of all of the risks associated with international change buying and selling, and seek advice from an impartial financial advisor when you’ve got any doubts. As the identify implies, it is an account that helps you commerce within the stock market. To transfer shares held with the share registry into your CommSec Share Buying and selling Account it’s essential full an Issuer Sponsored Holdings to CHESS Sponsorship Switch Kind. A secure and easy to use on-line trading account with clear, honest and competitive pricing.
If you need the dealer to trade your account for you, you’ll be able to choose this. Demat account is generally for the people who would like to make investments in the market and maintain the shares within the digital type. Spend money on Australian corporations listed on the ASX , with brokerage from as little as $10.002 per trade. This would possibly include, but is not limited to, saving accounts, choices, shares portfolios, equities and funding in funds. Most, nevertheless, supply cash accounts at a participation stage of about $10,000.
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